The Production Pattern of Rubber Farming and Farmer Behavior in Dealing with Price Fluctuations in Jambi Province, Indonesia

This study aims to determine (1) the magnitude of the fluctuation in rubber prices (2) the pattern of production of rubber and the behavior of farmers in dealing with price fluctuations and (3) the elasticity of the supply of rubber in Jambi Province. This study uses a survey method with the scope of the study area being Jambi Province by selecting two villages purposively, namely Muhajirin Village in Muaro Jambi Regency and Tanah Grow Village in Bungo Regency. Supply elasticity will be analyzed using secondary data and parametric statistical tests. The results showed that the fluctuation in the price of rubber in Jambi Province was quite large, namely Rp. 4,200 per kg in January 2002, then increased to Rp. 43,200 in February 2011, and decreased again to Rp. 6,000 per kg in June 2020. The pattern of rubber production in Muhajirin Village looks irrational where when the price goes down the farmers actually increase their production, that is, in order to meet their daily needs that cannot be reduced. This means that production can still be increased by increasing tapping frequency. The pattern of rubber production in Tanah Tumbuh Village looks rational, where when the price of rubber goes down the farmers do not tap rubber. To meet the needs of farmers, they switch jobs to other fields, such as laboring on plantations, construction workers, or panning for gold. Rubber’s supply elasticity in responding to rubber price changes in Jambi Province is small from one (<1) but the change is significant.


INTRODUCTION
Smallholder rubber plantations have been a mainstay for the economy of Jambi Province since a century ago. This can be seen from the extent of rubber plantations and the number of farmers who depend on these commodities. In 2019 the area of rubber plantations in this province reached 557,644 ha with a total of 263,583 farmers (BPS, 2020).
Rubber is the sap produced by rubber trees (Hevea brasiliensis) and is sold in lumps and in everyday life it is called rubber (Rubber Processing Material) (Pratama et al., 2020). While the sap produced by rubber factories is often referred to as rubber but is better known as crumb rubber (rolled rubber) (Junaidi, 2020b). Meanwhile, Bokar is the sap from rubber plantations produced by smallholders (Kurniati et al., 2021). Furthermore, in this paper what is meant by rubber is the sap from rubber plantations produced by smallholders, namely Bokar.
The rubber plant (Hevea brasiliensis) as a plantation crop that has been integrated with the culture of the people of Jambi Province has an environmentally friendly nature (Pratama et al, 2020). In fact, this rubber plant is included in the category of forestry plants that are suitable to be developed in forest areas and other areas so that rubber plants are also suitable to be developed for the purpose of reforestation and forest rehabilitation.
Previous research has shown that rubber plantations have not been able to provide higher welfare to communities in Jambi Province. The facts show that the per capita PDRB (Gross Regional Domestic Product) of regencies whose main producers are rubber plantations is lower than other districts whose main income is not rubber (Mara, 2018). This is related to the low productivity of rubber plantations and the underdevelopment of the rubber industry which has been able to raise the price of rubber at the farm level to a higher level.
According to Junaidi (2020a), rubber prices tend to fluctuate. The price of rubber in the last 20 (twenty) years in Jambi Province has shown high fluctuation. As an illustration, in 2000 the price of rubber was Rp 4,200 per kg. In 2006, it increased to Rp 13,000 per kg andin 2011 to Rp 43,200 per kg (Gabkindo, 2020). However, in 2019 it fell back to Rp 12,500 per Kg. Rubber prices at the farm level are much more fluctuating and much lower, even reaching Rp 2,000 per Kg so that at this price the farmers do not tread rubber latex (Syarifa et al., 2016). The low level of the farmer is related to the quality of rubber as measured by the K3 (Dry Rubber Content) set by the trader. In addition, rubber prices will also be lower than factory prices because of the marketing margins enjoyed by traders. According to Aulina et al. (2021) the low productivity of rubber plants causes the low income of rubber farmers. This also encourages farmers to change their mindset.
According to economic theory, producers will respond to high price fluctuations by decreasing or increasing production. This is what is called the elasticity of supply (Es) whose value will lie between 0 and ∞ or is often differentiated as 0 (very inelastic), <1 (inelastic), 1 (elastic), > 1 (elastic), and ∞ (very elastic). The yield of commodity elasticity is usually smaller than 1 because to increase the production of farmers usually requires a lot of time and capital which is difficult for him to fulfill. However, in contrast to traditionally cultivated rubber commodities, little treatment can be given for maintenance. The production of this rubber plant also depends on the frequency of tapping by the farmers. With such garden conditions, farmers can respond to price fluctuations by increasing or decreasing the frequency of sap tapping. This elasticity approach was also used in estimating the pattern of cattle production.
In production economics, the behavior of producers in determining the amount of production to be sold is by production patterns. In general, production patterns can be divided into 3 (three), namely constant production patterns, corrugated production patterns, and moderate production patterns. With traditional rubber plantation conditions, farmers can respond to the very fluctuating rubber prices by using a wavy pattern. If the price of rubber rises to a higher level, farmers have the opportunity to obtain high amounts of rubber production if the tapping is done more than the normal frequency. In fact, farmers also face the problem of the low quality of "Bokar" from old plants but farmers face difficulties in replanting efforts (Nainggolan et al., 2021;Riswani et al., 2020).
The problem that needs to be explored further as the behavior of farmers is the extent to which rubber farmers make changes to rubber production patterns in order to respond to relatively high fluctuations in rubber prices. For that, it is necessary to conduct field research to collect data about the behavior of these farmers. Based on the description in the background above, the research problem to be examined can be formulated, namely how much fluctuation in the price of rubber in Jambi Province during the last sixteen years, how the elasticity of rubber supply is related to relatively high price fluctuations, and how is the rubber production pattern by farmers in response to price fluctuations in Jambi Province.

METHODS
This study uses a survey method with the scope of the study area being Jambi Province by selecting two villages purposively, namely Muhajirin Village in Muaro Jambi Regency and Tanah Tumbuh Village in Bungo Regency. Jambi Province has 6 rubber producing districts. This rubber area can be divided into 2 parts, namely lowland and medium land.
Muhajirin Village could represent the lowlands while Tanah Tumbuh Village could represent the mediumland (Mara, 2018). This research was planned for 8 (eight) months consisting of preparation activities, field data collection, data analysis, and report preparation. The research time starts from April 2020 to November 2020.
Data were analyzed using simple regression analysis, namely to determine the magnitude of price fluctuation and price elasticity of rubber. Secondary data is time series data collected (Kadir, 2015) from 2000 to 2019 in Jambi Province. This is intended to analyze the magnitude of rubber price fluctuations and the amount of price elasticity in Jambi Province. For this purpose, data was collected from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS, 2020), the Jambi Provincial Bappeda and the Jambi Province Plantation Service, and the Jambi Province Trade and Industry Office, and Gapkindo (Indonesian Rubber Entrepreneurs Association).
Besides using secondary data, this study also requires primary data to be collected from sample farmers taken from two selected villages, namely Muhajirin and Tanah Tumbuh villages. From each village, cases of farmer behavior will be studied in responding to rubber price fluctuations. From the two villages, it will be analyzed how the rubber production pattern is a concrete expression of the behavior of farmers in response to high rubber price fluctuations. Therefore, this study will draw conclusions deductively, from general concepts to specific application.
For aspects of farmer behavior in responding to price changes, industrial methods will be carried out, namely things that apply specifically to the general public.

General Description of Government in Jambi Province
In 2019 rubber plantations in Jambi Province had an area of 557,644 hectares that spread across 9 (nine) districts. The area of rubber plantations has the largest area in Jambi Province. Other potential crops in Jambi Province are oil palm which has an area of 539,927 hectares and deep coconut which has an area of 119,257 (BPS, 2020). From table 1 it can be explained that rubber plantations in Jambi Province spread across 9 districts and there are 7 districts that are considered potential, namely Merangin, Sarolangun, Batanghari, Muaro Jambi, Tanjab Timur, Tebo, and Bungo districts. Meanwhile, the districts of East Tanjab, West Tanjab and Kerinci only have less than 10 thousand hectares.

Rubber Price Fluctuation in Jambi Province
Prices of Rubber (Rubber Processing Materials) in Jambi Province have usually been informed from Singapore and forwarded to the Jambi Provincial Trade and Plantation Service to inform farmers. This price is called an indication price, which is the purchase price of a rubber trader with 100% K3 (Dry Rubber Content). Farmers usually produce rubber with K3 less than 100% because it still contains water and other ingredients. Therefore, the farmer's selling price is always below the indicated price. The following rubber prices are the average prices of the monthly prices data by Gabkindo (2020) (Indonesian Rubber Entrepreneurs Association). Rubber prices from 2000 to 2019 can be explained in Table  2.  (2020) or during the pandemic (Covid19) the price of rubber is still low, ranging from Rp 5,500 per kg to Rp 8,000 per kg. This of course has led to changes in the economic and social behavior of farmers, such as switching to other commodities and even switching to other jobs.
For more details, the trend of changing rubber prices in Jambi Province can be shown by using the curve of Figure 1. From Figure  2, it can be seen that the curve is upward curving which shows that the price of rubber initially increased and then decreased significantly again. To explain in more detail about rubber price fluctuations in Jambi Province, monthly rubber price data can be shown. Monthly data shows higher fluctuation in rubber prices in Jambi Province. This is understandable because indeed prices can change every week. The changes in prices are so fast that the realization of these price increases does not reach the farmers. How high rubber fluctuations can be explained by the data in Table 3.
The data in Table 3 shows in detail, namely the monthly price data for rubber prices so that the fluctuation of rubber prices in Jambi Province is increasingly visible.  Seli et al. (2021) the rubber auction market is quite effective in controlling prices. However, the price of rubber in Indonesia is largely determined by the price of rubber on the world market. So the effectiveness of the auction market actually only applies to stabilizing prices at the local level so that fluctuations in domestic rubber prices are difficult to avoid. Rubber marketing in Indonesia is very dependent on developed countries, especially the United States, Japan and the European Union. As soon as there was an economic problem in the country, the price of rubber in Indonesia immediately plummeted.

Supply Elasticity of Rubber (Rubber Processing Materials) in Jambi Province
Price is one factor that determines the amount of rubber produced by farmers. An increase in price will usually encourage entrepreneurs to increase production and vice versa if prices have decreased. The relative comparison between price changes and relative changes in production is called price elasticity. From the perspective of farmers (producers) it is called the elasticity of supply.
Among the commodities, there are commodities whose elasticity is greater than 1 (one) and there are also commodities whose elasticity is smaller than 1 (one). For agricultural commodities, its elasticity is Agro Bali : Agricultural Journal e- ISSN 2655-853X Vol. 5 No. 1: 166-176, March 2022 usually less than 1 (one). This is related to the fact that to increase production requires a large enough investment and requires a relatively long time. However, for rubber commodity there is something specific, namely rubber production can be increased or decreased without investing, namely by increasing or decreasing the tapping frequency. Therefore, if there is a significant increase in rubber prices, a farmer can increase production by increasing the tapping frequency from 5 times per week to 7 times per week.
The data in Table 4 shows changes in rubber prices and rubber production from 2000 to 2019. This data shows that from 2000 to 2011 the price of rubber tends to increase, namely from Rp. 4,686 per kg to Rp. 30,566 per kg. Then from 2012 to 2019 there was a continuous decline, from Rp 30,566 per kg to Rp 12,500 per kg.
However, production data shows that from 2000 to 2019 rubber production increased continuously, from 238,500 tons to 355,443 tons, only one significant decrease occurred, from 2002 to 2003. Graph 1 illustrates that prices fluctuated. which is high, where in 2011 the price rose drastically or tapered upwards while production still tended to be linear or form a straight line up.
By using the data in Table 5 below, it will be seen that changes in rubber prices have an effect on changes in rubber production. The ratio of changes in price relative to changes relative to production is called "elasticity". The elasticity numbers are positive and some are negative. Positive means that the price change is followed by an increase in rubber production, while negative means that the price change is followed by a reduction in rubber production.  The data in Table 5 shows that the average elasticity of rubber supply from 2000 to 2019 is 0.1321. This figure shows that every time there is an increase or decrease in the price of rubber of Rp. 1, it will be followed by an increase or decrease in rubber production by 1.321 tons per year in Jambi Province. The elasticity figure of rubber supply in Jambi Province is indeed small of 1 (one). This figure shows that an increase or decrease in rubber prices will increase or decrease rubber production in a small, even negative ratio. Data for 20 years shows that only 13 (thirteen) years of rubber supply elasticity are positive, while 7 (seven) years are negative, while 7 (seven) others show negative rubber supply elasticity. The negative figure is because the data used in the analysis is annual data, while farmers respond to an increase or decrease in rubber prices in months or even weeks. Regarding the price fluctuation aspect, (Suri et al., 2021) reported that the rubber price fluctuation affected the rubber export value.

Rubber Production Patterns and Farmers' Behavior on Price Fluctuations in Jambi Province
Rubber production patterns can be said to be normal and can also be said to be abnormal. The production pattern is said to be normal. The behavior of farmers in rubber tapping is in accordance with their daily habits, namely tapping rubber 5 times a week. In contrast, the behavior of farmers is said to be abnormal, they can do rubber tapping more than 5 times a week or less than 5 times a week. The tapping was carried out more than 5 times in obtaining more rubber latex, both in response to price increases and for other reasons. On the other hand, tapping was done less than 5 times because there was another job or because the price was not attractive. This analysis was conducted to determine the behavior of farmers in response to fluctuations and fluctuations in the price of rubber. For this reason, a survey was conducted in two villages, namely Muhajirin Village, Muaro Jambi Regency and Tanah Tumbuh Village, Bungo Regency. Overall, the pattern of rubber tapping by farmers in response to price fluctuations in Jambi Province can be explained by using Table 6. From Table 6, it can be explained that as many as 41 people of the respondents stated that in rubber tapping they always carried out a normal pattern, namely an average of 5 times a week, both in conditions of normal prices and prices were down or up. Another 29 people from the farmers stated that they were using an abnormal rubber tapping pattern. Then 18 people said that the abnormal behavior was done when the price e-ISSN 2655-853X Vol. 5 No. 1: 166-176, March 2022 https://doi.org/10.37637/ab.v5i1.882 was not normal and 11 other people explained that it was done when the price was normal. Furthermore, 28 people from farmers who behave normally do it when the price is normal and as many as 13 others do it when the price is not normal. To find out more, an analysis was carried out on each village, namely Muhajirin Village and Tanah Tumbuh Village. It turns out that between the two villages there are differences in responding to price fluctuations. The farmer's behavior is not always the same as that described in the supply theory. Table 7 below explains the behavior of farmers in Muhajirin Village in responding to price fluctuations. From Table 7 it can be explained that as many as 21 respondents in the village followed normal tapping patterns both in normal price conditions and in abnormal price conditions and as many as 14 other respondents followed abnormal tapping patterns both under normal price conditions and non-price conditions. normal.
Furthermore, it can be explained that as many as 9 respondents in Muhajirin Village said that they actually tapped at abnormal or low prices, especially during the Covid pandemic19 the price of rubber actually dropped. This low price condition certainly has an impact on the family economy. Therefore, they do something deviant to cover the minimum needs of the family. This may also be related to the condition of employment in Muhajirin village which is not open, rubber gardens are the only jobs.
The rubber tapping pattern in Tanah Tumbuh Village seems to follow a slightly different rubber tapping pattern. The fluctuation in the price of rubber is followed by a condition of decreasing the flow of rubber latex out of the rubber stem. This is a serious blow to the farmer's economy, so they have to look for other alternatives. To find out the pattern of rubber tapping behavior in Tanah Tumbuh Village, it can be explained by the data in Table 8.
From Table 8 it can be explained that as many as 19 respondents in the village followed the normal tapping pattern both in normal price conditions and in abnormal price conditions, as many as 15 other respondents followed an abnormal tapping pattern both in normal price conditions and non-price conditions. It can be further explained that as many as 9 respondents in Tanah Tumbuh Village did not do rubber tapping at all, they switched to other jobs. As they did in this Covid-19 pandemic condition. Other jobs include being a laborer in an oil palm plantation company and doing gold panning in the rivers around the village. They can do this if the conditions of employment in the village are open, although they can only cover the basic needs of the family. Changes in tapping patterns for smallholder plantation farmers were made possible because there was no external supervision regarding wiretapping guidelines as is done in large plantations (Silaban et al., 2021).

CONCLUSION
The fluctuation of rubber prices in Jambi Province during the last 20 years is quite large, especially when using more detailed data, namely monthly data. Although the rubber price fluctuation is quite large, the elasticity of supply using data for 20 years shows the number 0.1321, which indicates a relatively small elasticity. Farmers in the two survey villages responded to the high fluctuation of rubber prices by changing the tapping pattern, where the decline in rubber prices which caused the family's needs not to be fulfilled was responded to by farmers with deviant tapping behavior, namely by increasing the frequency of tapping in the hope that the production obtained was greater. Meanwhile, farmers in other villages reacted by switching to other jobs.